US Election Polls: Who is Ahead – Harris or Trump?
- Kamala Harris has led Donald Trump in national polls since joining the race in late July.
- Swing state polls are extremely close, with just one or two points separating the two candidates.
- Key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could determine the outcome of the election.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump in the national polling averages, according to the latest data from 538. The two candidates faced off in a widely viewed televised debate on September 10 in Pennsylvania, which attracted over 67 million viewers.
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National Polls: Harris Holds a Slim Lead
Harris’ lead over Trump has increased slightly since the debate, rising from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the event to 3.3 points a week later. This modest boost for Harris is largely due to a slight dip in Trump’s numbers, which fell by 0.5 percentage points following the debate.
The national polling averages, while indicative of overall popularity, are not always the best predictors of the election outcome, as the US electoral college system plays a crucial role in deciding the winner.
To win, a candidate needs to secure 270 electoral college votes out of 538. With many states consistently voting for the same party, the focus is on a handful of battleground states where both candidates have a real chance of victory.
Who is Leading in Battleground State Polls?
In the critical swing states, the race is extremely tight, with Harris and Trump separated by just one or two percentage points. The polls are particularly significant in Pennsylvania, a state with the highest number of electoral votes among the battlegrounds.
When Joe Biden dropped out of the race, he trailed Trump by an average of five points in these states. Harris has since closed the gap, and in some states, she now leads.
Harris has been ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August, but the margins remain narrow. These states were Democratic strongholds before Trump flipped them red in 2016. Biden reclaimed them in 2020, and Harris will need to do the same to secure victory in 2024.
How Are Polling Averages Created?
The polling averages used in the charts come from 538, a polling analysis website linked to ABC News. 538 gathers data from a variety of national and state-level polls conducted by reputable polling companies.
To ensure accuracy, 538 only includes polls that meet strict standards regarding transparency, including details on how the poll was conducted, the sample size, and the method used (phone, online, etc.).
Can We Trust the Polls?
Although polls currently suggest that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in the battleground states, polling has historically underestimated support for Trump, particularly in 2016 and 2020. Pollsters have since adjusted their methods to better reflect the makeup of the voting population.
However, predicting an election remains challenging, as pollsters must make educated guesses about which voters will turn out on November 5.
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