Russia Raises 2024 Oil and Gas Export Forecasts to $239.7 Billion Amid Strong Price Outlook
- Russia’s economy ministry revised its 2024 oil and gas export forecast upwards by $17.4 billion, expecting revenues of $239.7 billion.
- The upward revision underscores the resilience of Russia’s economy despite Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.
- Russia expects higher oil prices and increased natural gas revenues, particularly from China and India.
The Russian economy ministry has revised its 2024 forecasts for oil and gas export sales, boosting the estimated revenues by $17.4 billion to a total of $239.7 billion, according to a document seen by Reuters. The increase is due to a more positive outlook on oil prices, despite the pressure from Western sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
The updated forecast highlights how Russia’s oil and gas sector has proven resilient to sanctions, including oil price caps and import restrictions imposed by the West.
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Rising Crude Oil Exports and Prices
According to the document, Russian crude oil exports are expected to rise to 239.9 million metric tons (approximately 4.8 million barrels per day) in 2024, compared to 238.3 million tons in 2023.
Russia’s oil price for exports is now forecasted to rise to $70 per barrel, up from the earlier estimate of $65 in April and significantly higher than the $64.5 per barrel average in 2023. This is also well above the $60 price cap imposed by Western countries as part of their sanctions.
Gas Prices Revised Up for Europe and China
The ministry also revised up the natural gas price outlook for sales to both Europe and China, reflecting Russia’s ability to redirect business away from Europe in favor of China and India since the Ukraine invasion.
As a result, Russia’s oil and gas revenues for 2024 are expected to reach $239.7 billion, which would be a $13 billion increase from 2023’s revenues. The 2025 forecast has also been revised upwards to $236.5 billion, compared to $226.2 billion in the previous forecast.
Oil Production Declines as Russia Participates in OPEC+ Cuts
Despite the positive revenue outlook, Russia’s oil production is expected to decline. President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of Russia’s oil and gas industry during an economic forum, stating that the global economy would struggle without it.
Russia remains part of the OPEC+ coalition, which is working to curb oil output in an effort to stabilize the volatile market. The ministry’s revised estimates show Russian oil production will fall to 521.3 million tons in 2024, down from 529.6 million tons in 2023, and 1.7 million tons lower than the previous forecast. For 2025, the forecast was reduced further, with production expected to drop to 518.6 million tons, a decrease of 11.4 million tons from earlier predictions.
While Russia expects natural gas output to increase each year until 2030, the revised forecast suggests that overall energy exports will decline in volume, even as oil prices remain strong.
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